Lousy weather forcasts

[Csafisher]

Can’t catch fish in your living room....

[Brian Castille]

30% and 40% are "normal" rain chances for summer days with the highest chance typically in the afternoon but all days are different and there is always the chance for the unexpected. I have been in some bad stuff before - I have taken a glancing blow from a lightning strike and had electricity running through my body, I have been in confirmed 98 mph winds at the jetties, I have been in a boat that got hit by a waterspout in more or less blackout conditions. All 3 events were unexpected and unavoidable. I watch the weather forecasts a lot and watch radar on my phone while fishing. Sometimes a 10% chance of rain ends up being storms all over the bay at 6am and sometimes an 80% chance of rain does nothing. There are also hourly forecasts available that help. Typically in the summer, the storms are either right at grey dawn or in the afternoon (my experience anyway). Percent chance of rain is confidence of it raining over a portion of an area. If confidence is 80% that it will rain over 25% of the area, the percent chance of rain is 20% for the area. Not much but if they are correct and you are in the 25% area with 80% confidence, you're getting wet, lol. If there is a higher chance of storms, I may go and stay close to the dock. I also have contingency plans for storms. Don't be afraid to run and hide somewhere to get out of the weather. My thought is to just be confortable and don't take a chance to catch another fish. Safety first. Sorry for the rambling, lol.

[c hook]

Originally Posted by 2310Ranger

Obviously don't ignore the weather...but 40 percent = 60 percent not...go fishing! If I understand your post correctly...prayers for you as well.

I use this one frequently.

[Bruce J]

I use the app called RadarScope for tracking rain cells, and it seems pretty good. Any other recommendations.

[dk2429]

I've never trusted weather predictions. I dont care what kind of meteorologist you think you are, theres no one that can 100% predict the weather. I just use my own eyes. If **** is about to go south, head in. If it looks okay, then I'll stay.

Only thing I trust is wind speed/direction. Theres just been too many incidents with me that the weather turned opposite of what was predicted, both in a good and bad way.

Theres nothing like the night before.. "Weather tomorrow, 10% chance, light wind, party cloudy!" Then you wake up the next morning at 6 at Houston County Lake ready to go, and it starts raining and storming so hard that the parking lot floods. That was the last time I trusted weather forecast

[troutsupport]

Let's face it, weather forecast have become dumbed down for the city life and the more predictions they make it gives them higher odds of being wrong ;-) so it's generalized. LOL. That said, knowing a little about what's going to cause the forecast is a good thing, for example.. a forecast that tells you a front is coming through.. that's helpful because that should clue you in to watch that Radar Ap. You should expect the wind direction and speed to change with that and you want to have a heads up of what you think that should be and about what time it's going to happen. Fronts and Rain associated with a frontal system can produce higher winds than what is predicted due to storm cell down burst... so the forecast wind might say 'Changing to North at 15' and you'll get downburst to 40 in those storm cells.. so just know what is going to happen for the day.