2 Cool Fishing Forum banner

Is the Bear coming?

11K views 30 replies 19 participants last post by  driftwood 
#1 ·
#7 ·
A correction is as guaranteed as the sun rising in the morning. The timing of that correction is just not as predictable as that sun peeping across the horizon.

Along time ago I gave up trying to "forecast" or "predict" what the market is going to do. I am in it for the long haul and will probably live through many more such "corrections". Corrections are just cheaper buying points for me.

On a macro scale I think it looks pretty good for the time being. Economy is strong and we are in a very pro-business environment.

The only Black Swan event I see is a prolonged trade war with China. I think the likelihood of this is pretty low.
 
#10 ·
You ever wonder why corporations beat by a penny in bull markets and miss by a penny in bear markets if analyst were able to predict or, maybe they can are trying to steer the investor in the wrong direction. I've come to realize there is just too much smoke and trees to see any animals. Brokerage houses make money by getting people to trade their accounts, jumping here and there, especially, at the wrong time. Financial news just a tool of theirs to manipulate the public's views.
 
#12 ·
We have been on a bull run forever. One of the best of all times.

All good things must end. There seems to be a few dark clouds building on the horizon:

Trump may pound China with 200 billion in tariffs.
Turkey is in trouble
Argentina is in trouble…Again.

Just saying it may be a good time to take something off the table and cash out. Nothing like dry powder waiting to buy on a big dip.
 
#15 ·
I pulled everything out 5-6 years ago when several key indicators pointed to an almost certain correction. I figure with that brilliant move, I missed out on a good $250K plus in earnings, minimum. Couple of years ago I got back in on a conservative retirement account. Bottom line in my opinion. If you’re young, let it ride on some higher risk funds. You have plenty of time to make it up. If you’re close to or already retired, a conservative fund is the way to go. Pretty broad advice, adjust to the level of heartburn you can withstand....:D
 
#16 ·
Lots of market timers out there - I have yet to see one who was right most of the time.

Staying in the market has been a good strategy, as you have to be invested in certain time frames to benefit..... cash on the sidelines does not move and actually devalues over time.

Every successful Financial Adviser I have meet has stopped timing and keeps money invested

I know for a fact there is Billions in cash (or equivalent) on the side lines - some waiting for the correction to jump back in - others are happy with CD rates
 
#19 ·
They said looked like china was sitting out of our bond auction yesterday.
Bond auction is a nice way of saying government borrowing money.
First I heard yesterday of this on cnbc, also that not only might they do not want to buy our bonds but they do not have money due to their slowdown.
And anybody that dosnt think stock market has a huge affect on the overall economy has their head in sand. Even if you dont own any stocks.
Surprising no comments from 2cool braintrust IMO
 
#20 ·
just been busy myself. i'd bet my portfolio that our man trump is on the red line phone with china banging out a trade deal tho so we can turn the market before the mid terms.
i'd bet half of my portfolio that rich dims are trying to tank the market before the mid terms.
 
#21 ·
With the market so high, any kind of sell-off triggers more sales electronically, which exaggerates things.
MANY big blue chips are already down 10-20% and most all of the big gains have been on techs and stuff like Amazon/Bitcoin, which is all betting on blue sky right now.
As long as companies are showing good profits, and there are not major layoffs then this is nothing but a correction.

IS anyone buying Sears?
 
#22 ·
We have been riding way too high for way too long. I have been pulling back to cash for the past 6 months as targets are met and I am unable to find new investments that make sense. Looking at the amount of cash waiting for reinvestment I would think I am not the only one. My total portfolio is about 35% cash at the moment. As soon as a realistic buying opportunity is presented I plan to move cash back into the market.

I will probably be moving heavy back into the stocks that I cashed out on ATT and MAA both will be ripe for buying as soon as the dust settles in a week.


Not buying Sears. That is a dead duck.
 
#26 ·
Well I was a few months off but it was pretty clear the Bear was coming - I am an old guy and in the investment business. Have seen this scenario over and over and over. Not only in investments but in real estate. What goes up will come down and it was clearly time for a huge correction.



As hard as it is to do there is an old saying on investments - Buy when there is blood in the streets. I do not know where the bottom is but if you are in for the long term then there will be buying opportunities I think -
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top