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Colossians 3
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Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 10, 2004

AMSU data from NOAA satellites suggest that Nicole may havedeveloped a slight mid-level warm core. However...the convectionremains quite shallow and well-removed from the center...withlittle evidence of curved banding. Therefore the system ismaintained as a subtropical storm at this time. The officialforecast still allows for some strengthening in the short term butgiven the strong shear and cyclonic environment aloft...only slightintensification seems possible. In a few days Nicole is expectedto merge with...and eventually become absorbed by...a strongextratropical cyclone just to the south of the Canadian Maritimes.

The cyclone center has been meandering over the past severalhours...however a strong 500 mb shortwave trough that will bemoving off the New England coast early on Monday should begin topull Nicole northward soon. The track guidance suggests somenorthward to north-northeastward acceleration...followed by a curveto the left with deceleration as the Nicole begins to interact andmerge with the extratropical low. The official forecast followsthis reasoning.forecast positions and Max winds

initial 10/2100z 32.0n 66.5w 40 kt 12hr VT 11/0600z 34.3n 66.5w 45 kt 24hr VT 11/1800z 39.0n 65.0w 50 kt 36hr VT 12/0600z 41.0n 65.5w 55 kt...extratropical 48hr VT 12/1800z 41.5n 66.0w 50 kt...extratropical 72hr VT 13/1800z...absorbed by extratropical system
 

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The map looks promising! Hopefully none of us will have to worry about her!

Thanks Fishman!
 
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