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Colossians 3
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Tropical Storm Matthew Discussion Number 1
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 08, 2004
the Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico found a
reasonably well-defined circulation with strong winds...48 kt at a
flight level of 600 ft...near the center. While the convective
organization of the system is poor and highly asymmetric...the core
circulation dictates that tropical cyclone advisories be initiated
at this time. Although the flight-level winds would support an
intensity estimate of 40 kt...these winds were observed over a very
small area and might not be representative. The initial intensity
is set to 35 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is 085/9...with the center following the deep
convection through much of the day today. There is considerable
uncertainty regarding the future course and strength of Matthew.
Global model guidance indicates the formation of a separate
baroclinically forced low center in the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico...and the beginnings of this low are already apparent in the
surface observations.
If this occurs...and Matthew survives as a
separate entity...it could take a gently curving path around the
periphery of the new low. This is the scenario indicated by the
simpler steering models such as the BAM family of models. The GFDL
shows a much sharper turn to the north...while the
GFS...UKMET...and Canadian models show only the developing
baroclinic low...which spends most of the next 2-3 days over
Louisiana. The official forecast leans towards the BAM
guidance...in part because this guidance appears to be more
consistent with current trends...but I am not real comfortable
being so far away from the normally good-performing global
guidance.



There is moderate shear over Matthew now...and global guidanceindicates that this shear will increase...at least over the westernGulf. If the track forecast is wrong and Matthew ends up movingmore to the north...it would likely find itself in an environmentunfavorable for strengthening. A more leisurely track across thecentral or eastern Gulf would afford more of an opportunity fordevelopment.
 

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Colossians 3
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Tropical Depression Matthew Advisory Number 9

Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on October 10, 2004

...Tropical Depression Matthew lost most of it tropicalcharacteristics and has become extra-tropical...

Flood watches have been cancelled for Louisiana and Mississippi.

At 4 PM CDT...21z...the low that once was Tropical DepressionMatthew was located near 30.7 north latitude and 91.0 westlongitude...or near 15 miles northeast of Baton Rouge Louisiana. Maximum sustained winds near the coast are 20 mph with some highergusts. Higher winds will remain near the coast and off shore. Minimum central pressure is 1001 mb or 29.56 inches. Over the past nine hours...Matthew has been moving in a northerly direction atapproximately 10 mph. The extra-tropical low is forecast toslowly move north to central Mississippi by Monday morning.
 

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Thanks Fishman

Our skies in Miami are dark and we've been having intermittent showers since early morning.
Our forecaster said that the showers will increase today. This is associated with Matthew.
An interesting development was reported in this morning's Herald. The severity of the hurricanes that hit Florida with a 1-2-3-4 punch in six weeks "unearthed pieces of Florida's past."
"On the popular barrier island, Hutchinson Island, Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne exposed...then partially destroyed...fresh evidence of the areas earliest inhabitants, according to scientists now working to collect new archaelogical treasures along the Treasure Coast."
It went on to say that so far they have found shards of pottery that could be 2,000 years old. Also a chunk of charcoal that (a leading indicator of early civilization) that could be even older, and a fragment of a stone ax that originated on the other end of an ancient trade route hundreds of miles long.
Other evidence suggests that these coastal resident, known as Ais Indians, were also challenged by hurricanes where they retreated, returned and rebuilt.
Fascinating!
Sure wish Matthew would blow itself apart!
 
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