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Colossians 3
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Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 01, 2006

based on geostationary satellite imagery...the overall organizationof the tropical cyclone has changed little over the past severalhours. Radar imagery from Guadeloupe show some fairly well-definedspiral rain bands. Since there is no evidence of strengthening...the advisoryintensity remains at 35 kt. Chris is in a rather anticyclonic lower-tropospheric environment as evidenced by high sea levelpressures over the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Northerly shear is currently impacting the system and this isinhibiting upper-level outflow over the northwest quadrant. Asnoted in the previous discussion...Chris could become favorablysituated in a col region between two upper-level lows over the nextseveral days. This might lead to a low-shear environment thatwould be favorable for strengthening. The official forecast isvery similar to the current SHIPS model output and is above theintensity forecast consensus...icon. It should noted that theGFS...U.K. Met...NOGAPS...and ECMWF global models essentiallydissipate Chris within 5 days.

Even with high-resolution visible images...the center is notwell-defined. However the advisory location is in reasonableagreement with the Guadeloupe radar observations. Initial motionis estimated at 295/9. Chris is currently situated to the south ofa mid-tropospheric high pressure area. A weakness in thesubtropical ridge...associated with a well-defined upper-levellow...is now in the vicinity of 70w longitude. This weakness isforecast to shift westward while a ridge is maintained to the northof Chris. This steering regime should maintain thewest-northwestward track for the next few days. The official trackforecast is very similar to the previous one...and a little to thenorth of the dynamical consensus.

Air Force recon are scheduled to make an 1800 UTC fix on Chris

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200603.gif

 
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