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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Over the years I have made a few good calls and a few bad ones.

Several weeks ago I totally revamped my portfolio and went into conservative mode. First and foremost I would like to say it's been one heck of a good run. Almost a decade of good growth.

All Bull Runs come to an end and I am taking profits.

I don't like the storm clouds on the horizon.

Trade wars are not good and markets don't like them. I'm worried about the President openly criticizing the Fed Chairman. And now the dreaded inverted yield curve.

In addition we are headed into the time of year where crashes tend to happen.

You heard it here first. Take some profits and move to protect mode...
 

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fish control my brain
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If you can’t handle volatility your taking to much risk...

Not sure there is a time of year where crashes happen?

And I would be surprised if 1% here can explain why an inverted yield curve is bad....
(Explained in the 2nd paragraph- https://www.barrons.com/articles/yield-curve-inversion-stocks-recession-history-51565840376 )

This has been a buying opportunity for me..... I like companies who have fallen more than their peers who’s dividend is over 6% now ....

All my cash has been allocated.... and I’m hoping my alternatives do their job
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 · (Edited)
If you can’t handle volatility your taking to much risk...

Not sure there is a time of year where crashes happen?

And I would be surprised if 1% here can explain why an inverted yield curve is bad....
(Explained in the 2nd paragraph- https://www.barrons.com/articles/yield-curve-inversion-stocks-recession-history-51565840376 )

This has been a buying opportunity for me..... I like companies who have fallen more than their peers who’s dividend is over 6% now ....

All my cash has been allocated.... and I’m hoping my alternatives do their job
I can handle volatility. There is a big difference between volatility and a Bear Market.

As for the markets and its history of crashes. It's called the October Effect. It may be a little bit overblown psychologically but much of the market is "psychological". Some of the biggest crashes in market history have happened in October.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/october-effect.asp

With that being said every dip in the last decade has been a buying opportunity so recent history is on your side. This is just one mans opinion. Go with your gut...
 

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Inverted yield curve by itself isn’t bad. If you look at the numbers, the yield curve change over the past week is extremely minor.

When yield curve reverts from inverted to positive as Fed drop short term treasury rates to stimulate economic growth signals an economy in recession conditions.

I already portioned in safer investments.
US Market is oversold, corporate earnings are flat, Germany already had one negative quarter, China economy is flat.
China has the cards they need to screw with the US economy during Trumps re-election year until he will back down in the trade war.
Stocks are gonna significantly readjust lower, I’m not gonna try to time when.
 

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You heard it here first. Take some profits and move to protect mode...
No, you are not the first...and certainly won't be the last to mistakenly proclaim Trump's impending doom. Betting against him in the trade war just might be a loosing position. We will see!
 

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One mans trash is another ones treasure. It all depends on the amount of time you have to stay exposed to the market. Diversify,Diversify,Diversify .
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
No, you are not the first...and certainly won't be the last to mistakenly proclaim Trump's impending doom. Betting against him in the trade war just might be a loosing position. We will see!
Where do you get that I am proclaiming Trump's impending doom? The Market has been on fire for over a decade. Every run comes to an end. Has nothing to do with Trump and everything to do with economic cycles...
 

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fish control my brain
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Hey I’m in the biz.... I can’t time the market nor do I know anyone who can
And I know some smart financial people....

Successful Market timers don’t exist
 

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It ain't easy bein me.........
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Hey I’m in the biz.... I can’t time the market nor do I know anyone who can
And I know some smart financial people....

Successful Market timers don’t exist
Yep, glad I didn’t listen. I’ve made a nice little pile of money since this thread started....:biggrin:
 

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Had our annual meeting with our broker on Thursday, up double digits plus on both accounts this year, averaging 9.5% over the last 18 years. We leave the heavy lifting to him, we work on the principle that his job is NOT to lose our money, working well for us.
I know I couldn’t have done as well if I managed my own money plus all the time and worry it would have caused.
 

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S&P 500 index is up 14% since the original post. As others have stated, no one can successfully time the market. Also, very few investment advisors or mutual funds can consistently beat the indexes. Buy a low cost diversified index fund (S&P 500, Russell 3000, total market, etc.) and hold it thru thick and thin. It will go down and it will go up, but long term you will do well. And remember: you haven't made or lost any money until you sell. (and if you made money you will pay capital gains tax).
 
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