2 Cool Fishing Forum banner

1 - 20 of 26 Posts

·
Administrator
Joined
·
23,853 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
The afternoon was spent with the statistical folks explaining the stock update. Cutting to the chase, they appear poised to push alternative 3 up to the full council. Should the full council vote to accept that advice, and nothing else happens to derail it, then the 2011 and years after that TAC would go up. The Red Snapper AP meeting begins at 8 in the morning. I will try and give a brief update on it at lunch tomorrow. It's set to end at 3 and then I am driving back to League City. The meeting room was super crowded today but everyone made the best of it. It's darn near blowing a hurricane here tonight, wind and rain, and lots of wind. The web casting thing didn't work, but it wasn't for lack of them trying to make it work. I have a feeling it has a lot to do with the weather and the internet connect here at the hotel. My verizon air card has been working great.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,424 Posts
Did I hear Mont right, the TAC will go up instead of down? Dang me, I'm buying the beer on Wednesday!

X5
 

·
Vendor
Joined
·
6,013 Posts
Howdy,
Here's a quote from Steve Atran's post earlier;

"The report contains several alternative projection scenarios with catch levels ranging from 2 to 11 million pounds. The SSC will select which one should be used by the Council, and they will specify an Acceptable Biological Catch (ABC), which will be slightly less than the yield allowed in the model to account for scientific uncertainty. For those who want to cut to the chase, the projected yields for 2010 - 2014 are in Table 30 on pages 95-96. The assessment panel is recommending Model AS3, which (if I have read the chart correctly) would allow yields of up to 9 million pounds per year for 2010 - 2012 (current TAC is 5 million pounds) before overfishing occurs. There is also an option to either continue treating the red snapper stock as a single unit throughout the Gulf of Mexico, or split it into east and west management units with the dividing line at the Mississippi River."

Mont,
Any discussion on the 2010 TAC or the possibility of an east/west split?
Thanks for your dedication to the fishery.
Tom
 

·
Tiny is Gone... Hi, My Name is ROGER
Joined
·
5,886 Posts
Hmmmmmmmmm....


Thanks for the Update Mont, and more especially All you hard work!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,486 Posts
Maybe I need to go get a tinfoil hat and wait for the black helicopters, BUT
I can't help wondering if the SSC isn't doing this so people will quit screaming at them for not complying with the latest MSA provisions on stock assessment.
 

·
Administrator
Joined
·
23,853 Posts
Discussion Starter · #12 ·
The red snapper ap voted to go with the shrimp rebuild plan as3 and voted to have the council enact that in 2010. There are still several steps to making this actually happen, but our part of it has been done. We have a bit of work to do after lunch and then I am heading home. As indicated, if adopted as passed, the TAC would go up in 2010 or at the latest, 2011.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,486 Posts
The red snapper ap voted to go with the shrimp rebuild plan as3 and voted to have the council enact that in 2010. There are still several steps to making this actually happen, but our part of it has been done. We have a bit of work to do after lunch and then I am heading home. As indicated, if adopted as passed, the TAC would go up in 2010 or at the latest, 2011.
Have a safe trip home Mont, and thanks for your participation.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
97 Posts
I left at lunch, especially after I heard that the SSC was running long and would not have a hard number back until after the AP was likely to over. I am told by phone that the SSC decided that the AS3 numbers were high and came back with an ABC of 6.94 MP, the TAC had yet to be decided.

Mont can elaborate if any of this changes in the mean time.
 

·
Vendor
Joined
·
6,013 Posts
ssc meeting

Here's an email I got from a friend who attended the SSC meeting - the question is how they will arrive at the number of days needed to reach TAC.

I [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]listed below the motions that were made and passed in the SSC meeting today. They do show there is an improved stock but models do not confirm the age data they need to be sure the productive stock is where it needs to be. They were told to give NMFS the OFL and ABC levels. They do not know how the Council will address these numbers. They may stay the same as last year. They deliberated on this issue all day and finally made these motions...[/FONT]
SSC Motions 12-2-09
Motion: The Committee moves to accept the 2009 Red Snapper Assessment Report and the OFL proposed by the Update Assessment Panel in Table 25 of the report through 2015 Model AS3, Shrimp Effort Rebuild, as the best available science. (MP)
2010 9.26mp
2011 9.58mp
2012 9.98mp
2013 10.62mp
2014 11.19mp
2015 11.73mp
Motion passed: 15 yes,3 no
Motion: The committee moves to set the ABC be equal to 75% (6.954#) of OFL in 2010. (yield in pounds).
Motion passes.
Motion: The committee moves to use the current SSC working group to develop methods to incorporate uncertainty for a Red Snapper ABC for the 2011-2015 timeframe.(HB)
Motion passes.
Motion: The committee moves to recommend the red snapper ABC for 2011 and 2012 to be 75% of the OFL from the panel report. (JC)
2011=7.185
2012=7.485
Motion passes.
 

·
Administrator
Joined
·
23,853 Posts
Discussion Starter · #18 ·
The "pecking order" here is that what the SSC sets in place has the force of law.

Then the Red Snapper AP chimes in and sends that up to the reef fish committee.

The reef fish committee send up their recommendation to the Gulf Council.

Due to an unfortunate set of circumstances, the SSC finished their work after the AP had concluded their meeting. Remember, the RSAP agenda has start and stop times, so does the SSC. Since "the cart got in front of the horse", the RSAP adopted what was most likely (and appears to have been) result of the SSC and added to it the following:

The opening of the season should be moved up to the 2nd Saturday of April

The opening time should be 1AM of the date (insert date)

The closing time should be 11PM of the date (insert date)

Now, the exact motions and such won't be on record for a while, at least until some sort of "transcript" is made. So, everything I just posted is my personal take on this.

Remember, what the SSC sent up has the force of law.

Everything between the SSC and the Gulf Council are recommendations. -

For everyone wanting to cut through the ******** and get to the bottom line, here's my take:

Nothing changes though 2012. We get the same season. We get the same limit.

As stated, that's my .o2.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
97 Posts
Mont, I had to leave before you all discussed the opening date. If it looks like we are going to have another short season, what was the reasoning behind setting the opening as early as 4/2/2010?
 

·
Administrator
Joined
·
23,853 Posts
Discussion Starter · #20 ·
The "new opening date" discussion originated with Bob Gill tossing out some ideas for discussion. Since the opening date only applies to the recreational side, several of the for-hire members discussed moving it forward to miss the hurricane season. As the only private rec on the AP, I wholely agreed 100% with moving it up because it's so much nicer fishing in cool weather than in the heat of the summer. June and July are 2 of the hottest months in Texas, and I for one am getting too old to be fishing in that heat. It's retarded to bottom fish in the heat of the summer. I would much rather troll then than fish with a vertical line. Sooo... we had some discussion, took a vote and voted to move it up. But, (way big sticking point here) is before that can happen, it all has to go out for hearings and public comment.

So, once again, I will stand by my post and say nothing changes before 2012. nada
 
1 - 20 of 26 Posts
Top