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Colossians 3
1,364 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
As the GFS global model has been forecasting...Frances is now moving
slowly westward. The best estimate of the initial motion is 280
degrees at 8 knots.

It appears that the expansion of the developing subtropical ridge north of the hurricane is already occurring. This pattern would steer the hurricane between the west and west-northwest over the next five days. This forecast is consistent with the GFS...UK...Canadian and the ECMWF global models which are in very good agreement in building a strong subtropical
ridge and moving the hurricane dangerously north of Puerto Rico and
across the Bahamas to just east of Florida.

The GFDL model is beginning to show a little more northwesterly motion by the end of the forecast period. This track would be less threatening for South
Florida and the Keys.

Well, there goes the tourist dollars Labor Day Weekend on the East Coast, again... Lets pray for a hard right turn into the North Atlantic! Wheres that Canadian cold front when you need it??

5,055 Posts
It's really appreciated Fishman

The way you are keeping on top of these storms. I would much rather watch what you are doing here than watch the reports on TV. They did an outstanding job of scaring the h*ll out of us here in Miami when Charlie was coming. Years ago the TV weathermen here would appraise us of the track and if it was headed for us they would cautiously warn us, give us what we needed to know about the winds and rain....then spent the rest of the time reviewing what we should have on hand. Then they would always reassure us and invite us to call into the station, if everything was working, and talk us through until they knew we were OK.
As a matter of fact, Brian Norcross from NBC here, stayed on the phone throughout Andrew. He calmed people, guided them through where to stay in the house as windows were exploding and trees smashing roofs.
One family with children were terrified. Brian told them to stay on the phone while they were doing the things he instructed them too. He had them all go into the bathroom, close the door, put the children in the bathtub while the adults stayed near the children. When it was safe to leave the bathroom they went into the hall and discovered that the living room wasn't there anymore, the roof torn off and remaining rooms, except the bathroom, destroyed. Brian was credited with saving that family's lives.
But today, our stations here, it seems, try to outguess the Hurricane Center. That's dangerous. A week ago Brian Norcross wrote a stinging article about the very thing in the Miami Herald. He is furious about how the TV weathermen handle Tropical Storms and Hurricanes for the general public.

So thanks Fishman. And no thanks Frances!

I've been "down" for a few days, same 'ol, same 'ol....but I'm back now.
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