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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
They passed the bailout bill Friday and we went from up 125 to down 125...markets trading bearish on bullish news is NOT good and you're seeing the result today.

Banks are still not lending money to each other (LIBOR) but it is WAY better than where it was last week (2.something % v 6.something %).

We just retraced 61.8% (google fibonacci) of the move we made from 2002 until late 2007 which was my first target (which may end up tearing my face off). We just retraced 100% of the move from our 2004 lows before it was off to the races. I can understand why the market has stopped here for this 10 seconds.

This market is why patience is so critical. People are BARFING up their portfolios right now. Among the interesting stocks I watch are...

VLO - Valero..WOW! It traded $21.49 which is like price to earnings of 4 and change. Horifically bad call by me $10 ago...and I'm adding to it until there aren't a dozen Suburbans waiting in line to pick up kids at our school...but not so much it can hurt me.

GE - sub $20. WOW! Very little subprime exposure and a historically well run business.

SU - $25. WOW! Lots of oil in the sands up there. Crude is way off and that hurts the oil sands plays. Their reserves are shocking and represent an amazingly better geo-political atmosphere than the middle east. It's off 2/3rds from its high. The last time SU traded here crude was trading $55-$65.

COP - Conoco trading 30% off highs and at a level commensurate with $60 crude way back in 2006. Amazingly well run company (I spent 6 years there).

AAPL - Apple is 55% off its highs. We quit buying as much of their stuff but buy it we do and buy it we will. They are technology leaders and the only company that has sold me 4 of the same product, lol. They are VERY exposed in moves like these (fun stuff we buy at Christmas kind of stock) and could see much lower levels.

Reactionary type folks are screaming "sell sell sell" which must mean there has already been a huge move. The $64k question is has the move finished...DO NOT BELIEVE ANYTHING YOU HEAR. Nobody knows.

What we need is an incremental piece of good news to bring in buyers. Otherwise, it's there is a ton more puking left to go and we see how close to 7,400 we can get (real big support level).

Commodities are also being barfed up which is helping put pressure on oil stocks.

Here is one simple chart pattern I really like to see on bottoms (I'M NOT SAYING THIS IS A BOTTOM)...look for a low, then a bounce (days or weeks), then another move down THAT DOESN'T MAKE A NEW LOW. Pull charts on just about anything and you'll see this pattern alot.

We basically just gave up several years of gains thanks to greedy/stupid home buyers and greedy/stupid subprime mortgage professionals. My situation allows me to be very opportunistic at this level and below. THIS IS NOT ME SAYING "BUY IT".

I may just end up squatting in a ditch shoving berries in my nose, lol.
 

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Evil Speculator
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Reactionary type folks are screaming "sell sell sell" which must mean there has already been a huge move. The $64k question is has the move finished...DO NOT BELIEVE ANYTHING YOU HEAR. Nobody knows.

It is funny watching guys like cramer spout there vomit on TV. Total reactionary investing, Blind leading the blind.

This another of the world is going to end guys as well. He is right about 10% of the time.lol


ph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3141428/Germany-takes-hot-seat-as-Europe-falls-into-the-abyss.html
 

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I'm Certainly not one to argue with buy and hold people becuase I am one. The difference is I buy and hold government backed bonds. I'm not going to lose my money. I have a different opinion, I would say if there has ever been a time to sell stocks, it's now.

Index changes year to date:

The DOW -27%

NASDAQ -32%

S & P - 30%

NEKKEI -24%

MEX BOLSA -35%

Brazil - 51%

EUROSTOXX -39.5%

Millan -43%

All of the markets are down huge, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, and it's a train.

You want to know what inning we are in with this economic mess? I think it's called batting practice.

Aside from the markets being down, after the election, no matter who wins, capital gains are going up. If any investors have any gains, they have the oportunity to pay the lowest capital gains possible right now, not after the start of the new year.

Just my opinion, and I may be squating in the ditch next to monarchy, I'm not a stock guy, but I don't see anything in the near future that could help us here.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Bondbroker...I just want to double check something with you...

You just said "I would say if there has ever been a time to sell stocks, it's now"
AND "I'm not a stock guy" in the same post.

Did I read that correctly?
 

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Monarchy,

You read it correctly. No one out there has a crystal ball that will let us know where any of the markets are heading, but things sure look bleak for the stock market. When I say I'm not a stock guy, I mean I don't own them and I never will. I can make just as much with bonds and don't have to risk losing my money if I buy good credit quality. If you're a stock guy that's fine. From what I understand you've done very well in options and you're good at it. I'm the type of person who likes to invest and know I'm not going to lose money as long as I hold to maturity. I can't get gains like google did earlier in the year, but I can get gains that would change investors thoughts on what a high credit quality bond portfolio will yield. Even in these rough times my portfolio is giving me over 8% and I can sleep at night. It's all government and government agency backed.
 

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The company I work for, the price has gone down from $87 to $42 a share in 2 months. Its a time to buy. Too Bad I have no money for stocks.

Anyone here have any esperiance with Zero Coupon Bonds?
 

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Do you make 10 % on your investments?
BondBroker said:
Monarchy,

You read it correctly. No one out there has a crystal ball that will let us know where any of the markets are heading, but things sure look bleak for the stock market. When I say I'm not a stock guy, I mean I don't own them and I never will. I can make just as much with bonds and don't have to risk losing my money if I buy good credit quality. If you're a stock guy that's fine. From what I understand you've done very well in options and you're good at it. I'm the type of person who likes to invest and know I'm not going to lose money as long as I hold to maturity. I can't get gains like google did earlier in the year, but I can get gains that would change investors thoughts on what a high credit quality bond portfolio will yield. Even in these rough times my portfolio is giving me over 8% and I can sleep at night. It's all government and government agency backed.
 

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I have some AAA rated bonds in my portfolios that were making over 70% last month, now they are making about 25% as soon as the U.S. libor comes back into line with fed funds I'll be making the big yields on them again. I say 8% because it's a safe yield that should keep on performing. Bonds that I bought when the fed was about to lower rates last year were adjustable rate bonds that floated up and down opposite the 1 month U.S. LIBOR which normally follows fed funds. Right now the U.S. LIBOR is floating away from fed funds because the credit situation is so bad in Europe.

Here is the info on a bond that I bought at the price shown when the coupon was at 0% it floats up and down opposite the 1 month U.S. libor by 25% for every 1% move in Fed Funds/Libor. If the 1 month U.S. LIBOR goes up the interest paid to the borrower will go down. Right now my investors are not particularly worried about the coupon on this bond going down because they made close to 60% on it last year and are still making over 20% on it. All in all, this bond has the potential to give investors a stock market like yield and even though its market value will fluctuate quite a bit, there's a date in the future when you're going to get your money back. This bond is not currently available, it's current market value is 181 cents on the dollar.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_kG6s-aS2t-w/SKCn-DeM1lI/AAAAAAAAABM/wqrBXeTUBw4/s1600-h/3139sg2cool.bmp
 
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