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Recieved 9:10 AM:
000
WONT41 KNHC 131300
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH AND IT WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.

FORECASTER STEWART

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Received 10:35 AM

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131429
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 IVAN HEADING TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SAND KEY IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH WITH A GUST TO 48 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF AN OUTER RAINBAND OF IVAN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...20.6 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
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PRIVACY: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/privacy.html
FEEDBACK: [email protected]

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
If I receive more from the hurricane center that I think might be helpful to you....I'll post them as they happen.

Joyce


 

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"IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS."


That's all I need to read out of that report. The past day or so they have been saying it is going to turn to the north, but this indicates northwest for the next 24 hours. This could get interesting.
 
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