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WTNT34 KNHC 131738
TCPAT4
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HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 IVAN CONTINUING ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N... 84.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

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Joyce
 
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