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Somebody, somewhere has yet gotten the brunt of this storm, baby. At CAT. 5 this dude hasn't finished killin' yet. Even I am gettin' a little skeered for those in it's path. I'm prayin' for those in it's path. As we used to say in the Navy, "This is a No Sh!tter." ComeFrom?
 

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What are you worried about? That thing is breathing down my throat right now in Tampa!!! Thankfully it keeps moving a little more westerly.. I think it will probably be slamming the Pensacola area and we will probably get a good lashing as she passes by to the West.

I jsut got off the water about an hour ago and this was the first time since Frances. I saw a bunch of sailboats beached in the bays, a power boat (30+ footer) on the rocks and stuff like that. We got grazed by Frances.. Ivan would quite literally rip this place a new one..
 

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My question is, when is it going to take "the turn" ? Is it just me or are they starting to waver a little on if and when that will happen. I saw a little while ago something they had not talked about. They said the upper Florida and Florida Penninsula are the likely areas but that all on the central Gulf Coast should be on alert. Gettin' a little interesting.
 

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Now, don't start that s***. That's all I need to worry about is my house disappearing.
 

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My aunt and uncle are in Panama City and i am concerned for them now, the models point to them (yeah i know they change often though) so instead of our yearly family vacation to biloxi in Oct. i may be going to help clean-up, on the flip-side though, things are SLOWLY looking better for Aunt Joyce
 

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Well - having been through 2 'canes in the last month and now on my thrid, I can say this. As long you are 50 or more miles to the west of these storms, you pretty much have nothing to worry about. You might get TS effects or the like, but even that is short lived normally. Charles passed just 35 miles to my East and we had maybe 1/4 inch of rain throughout the entire storm and the strongest wind was from a single band, that didn't rain at all and the wind was, at most, 20 mph.

Now Frances was pretty tame for the most part until it past just to our North and West, putting us in the Southeast portion. That is when the rain really came and the winds kicked up. Still, we only had what at most I would guess 60 MPH and around 10 inches total. In the grand scheme of things, still not a lot.

I am not in any way shape or form downplaying these storms. I am saying that as long you are to the West of the storm, you really don't have much to worry about. For every 10 miles you are away from the eyewall, the effects a virtually cut in half again and again.

Unless this thing takes a major turn to the West, you guys have nothing to worry about. It's pretty funny how my hurricane experience has doubled since I have been here and after Charley, my experience will number more in one month, than my entire life!

I will keep y'all posted, as long as I have power and the means to do so. If this Ivan decides to start coming East a little more of the current projections, I do believe this 2 Cooler will be tucking tale and running. I will even yelp if it will make things better! LOL

Pray for those that haven't been so lucky...
 

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Interestingly enough, the current models show Ivan crossing extreme Weastern Cuba and swinging wide missing the Keys and most of the penninsula and making landfall somewhere between Mississippi and the Florida panhandle. That is a much more Westerly trac and gentler curve back East.
I'll be watching reel close for that turn.
 

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Anyone have links to some bouys in the projected path? That ought to be fun watching them.
 

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Notice how the projected path has slowly shifted westward over the last couple of days. :eek:
 

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Panama City Beach

Just talked to my brother in PCB and he is boarding up so they can leave if Ivan heads that way. My parents live south of Mobile Alabama @ Dauphin Island and it looks like I may have to make a trip next week with generator,chain saw and ice. It does not look good for that part of the US. I will be watching carefully in case I need to help my parents load up and RUN.
James
 

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My point exactly Stuart! I know this trough will keep it East of us but I sure would feel better if I saw it make "the turn". I wish no ill will on anyone, and God knows Florida don't need it again, I just don't want to see it here. It's weird when you look at it on this kind of forum where you have people from all over the coast, you feel guilty wanting it to turn away from you, because that means it's going to someone else....
 

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Hunting Dog - I actually live in San Antonio, Schertz to be exact and I am stationed at Randolph AFB, but I am presently "deployed" to Macdill AFB in Tampa for 90 days. I have about 30 days left before I return. Then in December I will actually be packing up the hacienda and moving everything to Virginia. I plan on moving back to San Antonio whenever I get the chance, whether that is with the military as an active duty guy or retired, only time will tell. I have been in just over 15 years now.. WOW! 15 years, I'm getting old... LOL

I see you are in Lytle. I know Lytle and have been there many times. Great dove hunting down there! Maybe we can hook up and get a hunt or fishing trip in before I roll on out of there..

Later,
Chris
 

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Ivan's projected path has moved further West overnight. All models say It'll still turn but if it doesn't turn by tonight (Monday) the entire Gulfcoast could be on a watch/warning. Looks like maybe the Mobile, Theodore area may take the hit. We'll see.
 

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reelwork, look me up on the globle at michael carter contractor @ brooks. we have a lot of dove right now. but who nows when the season get her???? were did you dove hunt in lytle at?? whos place, i know just about everyone here, been here 45 years. lol
 

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Guess what family!

The map the Mont posted shows precisely what I have been worried about! I think it was around Thursday that I saw the potential in the tracking. I pray I am wrong!
One of the things I do that I shouldn't do is "hover" over NOAA on the internet. I also receive by email every update NOAA puts out. (you can sign up for that but they said they soon would cut off any more applications)
I've watching the tracking on these things for fifty years now....and if there's anything I've learned is that you can't anticipate landfall until the hurricane is almost there.
I'll be praying for Texas you can bet on that!
 
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