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Forecast for Metropolitan Dade County
Updated: 4:00 PM EDT on September 2, 2004

Flood Watch through Saturday...

Rest of This Afternoon
Partly sunny. Breezy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 80. North winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Mostly cloudy and windy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs around 90. North winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to around 45 mph in the morning becoming northwest 25 to 30 mph with gusts to around 50 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Friday Night
Hurricane force winds possible late with torrential downpours. Lows in the upper 70s.

Hurricane force winds possible with torrential downpours. Highs in the mid 80s.

Saturday Night
Cloudy. Very windy. Rain likely. Lows in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 30 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Local Hurricane Statement
Statement as of 2:15 PM EDT on September 2, 2004

... Hurricane Warning in effect for Southeast Florida coast and Lake
Okeechobee including Metro Palm Beach... Broward and Miami-Dade...

... Inland hurricane wind warning in effect for all inland South Florida
counties except coastal Collier and Mainland Monroe...

... Flood Watch in effect for all South Florida counties through Sunday except
coastal Collier and Mainland Monroe...

... Areas affected...
this statement applies to persons in Collier... Hendry... Glades... Palm
Beach... Broward... and Miami-Dade counties.

... Storm information...
at 2 PM EDT... the center of Hurricane Frances was located near
latitude 23.8 north... longitude 74.4 west. This location is about
420 miles east southeast of West Palm Beach... or about 400 miles east
southeast of Fort Lauderdale... Miami and Miami Beach. Frances is moving toward
the west northwest near 13 mph. This general motion with a turn to the
northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next 24 hours.
Frances remains a dangerous category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds
of 145 mph with higher gusts. Some fluctuation in intensity are expected over
the next 24 hours.

... Precautionary/preparedness actions...
a Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Emergency management in Miami-Dade County has directed an evacuation
for residents in zones a and b... including barrier islands... mobile
homes... Key Biscayne... Miami Beach and all low lying areas and
coastal areas east of U.S. 1. Evacuation centers will open at 4 PM.
Emergency management in Palm Beach County has ordered a mandatory
evacuation for mobile homes and barrier islands and the lake side of
the Hoover Dike. Palm Beach Red Cross shelters are open. Glades
County emergency management has ordered a mandatory evacuation of
people living in mobile homes... especially those in northeast Glades
County. Shelters will open at 3 PM. Broward County emergency
management has ordered a mandatory evacuation today for persons
living on barrier islands and all mobile homes. Broward shelters are
open but evacuees are urged to stay with friends or relatives.
Hendry County emergency management will lock down The Fort Denaud
bridge once tropical storm force winds reach the area on Friday.
Hendry County shelters will be opening today at 3 PM for voluntary
evacuation. Hendry schools are closed this afternoon and Friday. All
schools are closed for Palm Beach... Broward... and Miami Dade
counties today and Friday. Collier County schools are closed on
Friday. Call your local County emergency management hotline numbers
available on commercial television and radio for detailed

... Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts...
maximum storm tides of 7 to 10 feet above mean sea level will occur just north
of where the center crosses the coast. Landfall is possible anywhere in the
Hurricane Warning area... and therefore actual storm surge will depend entirely
upon where the center crosses the coast. The latest official forecast track
places areas in northern Palm Beach County and northward at greatest risk from
storm tide... including Jupiter Inlet... the lower part of the Loxahatchee
River... parts of Tequesta... and Jupiter Inlet Colony.

For Lake Okeechobee... the lake level today is 13.6 feet above mean sea level
which is below normal for this time of year. The water would be pushed up as
much as 8 to 10 feet higher on the lake side of the dike in Glades...
Hendry... and western Palm Beach counties from the mouth of Fisheating
Creek all the way around to Port Mayaca including Moore Haven...
Clewiston... South Bay... Belle Glade and Pahokee. The maximum
storm tide inside Hoover Dike would therefore be about 24 feet above
mean sea level on the west and south sides of the lake and as high as 20 feet
above mean sea level on the east side. The Hoover Dike protects inhabited areas
to at least 30 feet above mean sea level. Ritta... Kreamer and Torry islands
would be flooded at these levels including some campgrounds and roads. It
must be emphasized that the exact impact on the lake still depends on how close
and from what direction Frances approaches the lake.

... Wind impacts...
winds will begin increasing across South Florida early on Friday with tropical
storm force winds arriving along the southeast coast Friday afternoon. Hurricane
force winds would affect the Palm Beach and northeast Broward Metro areas
beginning around midnight Friday night and lasting into Saturday. Across south
Broward and Miami-Dade... tropical storm force winds would arrive late Friday
afternoon lasting into Saturday. This would be a very long time for such strong
winds... which means a greater potential for significant damage... including
destruction of mobile homes and extensive damage to weaker structures like
gas station roofs. Be sure to store all lawn furniture and secure swing sets and
loose yard items. Remove coconuts from Palm trees because they can become deadly
missiles in hurricane force winds. There is still uncertainty with the exact
forecast track of Frances... and should the track be shifted... the wind impact
would change greatly.

... Local marine impacts...
based on the current forecast track... seas will increase along the
Southeast Florida coast tonight and especially Friday morning.
Sea conditions will further deteriorate Friday and hurricane
conditions can be expected over the Southeast Florida coastal waters
Friday evening lasting well into Saturday. Mariners should secure
their boats in safe Harbor allowing extra line for the possibility
of storm surge levels or dry dock as soon as possible. There is
still uncertainty with the exact forecast track of Frances... and
should the track be shifted... the marine impact would change greatly.

... Local flood impacts...
forecast storm total rainfall amounts through Sunday in Palm Beach
County are expected to be from 8 to 10 inches with local amounts as
high as 12 inches possible especially where Frances crosses the
coastline. In Glades and Hendry counties... maximum rainfall totals of
6 to 8 inches are possible. From 2 to 6 inches are possible across
the rest of South Florida depending on the exact track of Frances. A
Flood Watch is in effect for all of South Florida except coastal
Collier and Mainland Monroe counties.

... Local tornado impacts...
there is a threat of tornadoes in the outer rainbands of Frances.
The threat of tornadoes will be greatest beginning Friday and
lasting throughout Saturday.
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