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Colossians 3
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Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2004
while the eye of the initial motion is 290/06. Jeanne has been wobbling in a general
west-northwestward motion the past 9 hours...but a turn toward to
the west is expected to begin later tonight or early Friday. This
has been the year for wraparound ridges...and 12z upper-air data
indicate that Jeanne is caught in such a pattern.
However...all of the global and regional models agree that the western portion of
the ridge across Florida will gradually weaken over the next 12-24
hours...which should allow Jeanne to move westward at a faster
forward speed.
All of the models are generally in good agreement on
a strong ridge/high currently located over Pennsylvania and West
Virginia moving southeastward to near eastern North Carolina in
about 48-60 hours.
However...there are enough subtle differences
that could determine if...when...and where Jeanne could make
landfall along the Florida East Coast
. The ETA...NOGAPS...and GFDN
models are the farthest south and bring Jeanne across South Florida
and to near the Tampa Bay area. The other models remain just inland
from the Florida East Coast with landfall between West Palm Beach
and Cape Canaveral.

The SHIPS model and the various global models now indicate that
south to southwesterly upper-level shear may hold off until Jeanne
gets near the Florida East Coast in about 60 hours. This may allow
Jeanne to strengthen into a major hurricane
as the cyclone moves
over increasingly warmer water...83-84f...located from the
northwest Bahamas westward to the Southeast Florida coast.



 
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