Where Ivan the Terrible will go is anyones guess at this point as you will see below. Much uncertainty exist, which is normal...
Ivan is expected to reach the western Caribbean Sea
where there is an area of high ocean heat content...high octane gas
for hurricanes...which could add to the intensification. Ivan
could become stronger than forecast. Indications are that there
will be a very dangerous hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea...western Cuba or southeastern Gulf of Mexico in five days.
There has been no change in the steering and Ivan is still moving
toward the west or 280 degrees at 16 knots. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next 3 days. Thereafter...the forecast
becomes uncertain. Global models continue to develop a trough over
the central United States and the Gulf of Mexico. This trough is
forecast to erode the ridge leaving a large area of weak steering
currents in the northwestern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. By then...the hurricane could move north over western Cuba
and South Florida as indicated by the GFS...the UK and NOGAPS...or
continue on a slow west-northwest track as indicated by the GFDL
and the FSU superensemble. The latter assumes that the trough in
the Gulf of Mexico will not be strong enough to steer the hurricane
northward...and that there will be enough ridging to steer the
hurricane toward western Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico. The official
forecast is in agreement with the latter option biased toward the
consensus.
![]()
Ivan is expected to reach the western Caribbean Sea
where there is an area of high ocean heat content...high octane gas
for hurricanes...which could add to the intensification. Ivan
could become stronger than forecast. Indications are that there
will be a very dangerous hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea...western Cuba or southeastern Gulf of Mexico in five days.
There has been no change in the steering and Ivan is still moving
toward the west or 280 degrees at 16 knots. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next 3 days. Thereafter...the forecast
becomes uncertain. Global models continue to develop a trough over
the central United States and the Gulf of Mexico. This trough is
forecast to erode the ridge leaving a large area of weak steering
currents in the northwestern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. By then...the hurricane could move north over western Cuba
and South Florida as indicated by the GFS...the UK and NOGAPS...or
continue on a slow west-northwest track as indicated by the GFDL
and the FSU superensemble. The latter assumes that the trough in
the Gulf of Mexico will not be strong enough to steer the hurricane
northward...and that there will be enough ridging to steer the
hurricane toward western Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico. The official
forecast is in agreement with the latter option biased toward the
consensus.
