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· Colossians 3
1,363 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Where Ivan the Terrible will go is anyones guess at this point as you will see below. Much uncertainty exist, which is normal...

Ivan is expected to reach the western Caribbean Sea
where there is an area of high ocean heat content...high octane gas
for hurricanes...which could add to the intensification. Ivan
could become stronger than forecast. Indications are that there
will be a very dangerous hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea...western Cuba or southeastern Gulf of Mexico in five days.

There has been no change in the steering and Ivan is still moving
toward the west or 280 degrees at 16 knots. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next 3 days. Thereafter...the forecast
becomes uncertain. Global models continue to develop a trough over
the central United States and the Gulf of Mexico. This trough is
forecast to erode the ridge leaving a large area of weak steering
currents in the northwestern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. By then...the hurricane could move north over western Cuba
and South Florida as indicated by the GFS...the UK and NOGAPS...or
continue on a slow west-northwest track as indicated by the GFDL
and the FSU superensemble.
The latter assumes that the trough in
the Gulf of Mexico will not be strong enough to steer the hurricane
northward...and that there will be enough ridging to steer the
hurricane toward western Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico. The official
forecast is in agreement with the latter option biased toward the


· Colossians 3
1,363 Posts
Discussion Starter · #2 ·
More Ivan Discussion...Tue Sept 7

Hurricane Ivan has become a category 4 hurricane once again. As of 8 p.m. EDT, Ivan was centered at 12.0 north, 62.6 west, or about 65 miles west Grenada and 385 miles east of Bonaire. Ivan is moving westward at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 135 mph. The central pressure in Ivan has dropped to 950 millibars or 28.05 inches. We expect Ivan to continue on a westward course for the next 2-3 days. This could bring the hurricane just north of The Dutch Netherland Antilles during Wednesday and over or close to Jamaica on Friday. Ivan strengthened to a category 4 and there is a big concern this hurricane could become a very dangerous category 5 hurricane. The track that Ivan takes west of Jamaica is very uncertain. Computer forecasts show a large spread of uncertainty in the future movement of this very dangerous hurricane. Model output seems to either take Ivan northward towards Florida later Sunday or take it towards the northwest Caribbean. All interests in the northern and northwest Caribbean as well as all interests in the Gulf of Mexico should keep a close eye on Ivan.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, we have a tropical wave along 39 west, south of 18 north; the satellite shows well-defined rotation, along with some thunderstorms. The system appears to be too disorganized to become a more defined system. However, as this feature moves westward upper level conditions still look favorable for possible development within the next couple of days.

Link To Pic Below http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosaic_400x300_public/ei/isehatl.jpg

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