Sure wish I had time to stir the political pot but I have more important things to do... Fishing...any argument there??
Caught blues and puppy drum last eve. Beautiful weather so far, windy 15, mph and NE winds. Heading out in a few minutes.
Come on down El & Don. Just a chance of a few showers is the TWC for all week.
AJ, Ivan looks better and better the more west he goes. It looks like Miami won't get the big one this go around. Nonetheless keep a close eye on the Gulf. You don't want Ivan to do a 360 http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200409_model.gif
Later...I'm out the door...headed out to the beach
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Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 45
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 13, 2004
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Caught blues and puppy drum last eve. Beautiful weather so far, windy 15, mph and NE winds. Heading out in a few minutes.
Come on down El & Don. Just a chance of a few showers is the TWC for all week.
AJ, Ivan looks better and better the more west he goes. It looks like Miami won't get the big one this go around. Nonetheless keep a close eye on the Gulf. You don't want Ivan to do a 360 http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200409_model.gif
Later...I'm out the door...headed out to the beach
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 45
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 13, 2004
the initial motion is 310/07. The last 4 recon fixes suggest that
Ivan has slowed a little and has turned northwestward. This may just be a temporary motion...but with increasing west to northwesterly 300 mb flow impinging on Ivan...this may turn out to be more of an established trend. The NHC model guidance has shifted slightly westward...and so has the official forecast track.
Ivan has slowed a little and has turned northwestward. This may just be a temporary motion...but with increasing west to northwesterly 300 mb flow impinging on Ivan...this may turn out to be more of an established trend. The NHC model guidance has shifted slightly westward...and so has the official forecast track.
However
...Latest water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air data indicate a 500
mb low over western Tennessee with a sharp north-south oriented
trough extending southward into the north central Gulf of
Mexico...which has eroded the subtropical ridge axis over the
central and eastern Gulf. This has allowed the ridge across Texas
and Louisiana to build eastward over the western Gulf. The
mid-level wind flow across the Florida Peninsula has also veered
from easterly to southerly during the past 24 hours...suggesting
that the ridge has eroded a little farther east than the NOGAPS and
GFDN models have been forecasting. Therefore...the forecast track
remains on the eastern edge of the model guidance envelope.
...Latest water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air data indicate a 500
mb low over western Tennessee with a sharp north-south oriented
trough extending southward into the north central Gulf of
Mexico...which has eroded the subtropical ridge axis over the
central and eastern Gulf. This has allowed the ridge across Texas
and Louisiana to build eastward over the western Gulf. The
mid-level wind flow across the Florida Peninsula has also veered
from easterly to southerly during the past 24 hours...suggesting
that the ridge has eroded a little farther east than the NOGAPS and
GFDN models have been forecasting. Therefore...the forecast track
remains on the eastern edge of the model guidance envelope.
The latest Air Force Reserve recon report indicated the pressure had
dropped another 2 mb in the past 2 hours while the eye diameter has
stabilized at a rather large 28-30 nmi. It is possible that Ivan
could strengthen another 5 kt or so before increasing northwesterly
300 mb shear disrupts the inner core convection. In the longer
term...Ivan will be moving over SSTs near 30c...with the shear
decreasing after 24 hours before it picks up again by 48-60 hours.
While the Gulf waters are warm...the depth of the warm water is relatively shallow...except for a warm Eddy over the north-centralGulf. Regardless...Ivan is forecast to be a major hurricane at U.S. Landfall.
dropped another 2 mb in the past 2 hours while the eye diameter has
stabilized at a rather large 28-30 nmi. It is possible that Ivan
could strengthen another 5 kt or so before increasing northwesterly
300 mb shear disrupts the inner core convection. In the longer
term...Ivan will be moving over SSTs near 30c...with the shear
decreasing after 24 hours before it picks up again by 48-60 hours.
While the Gulf waters are warm...the depth of the warm water is relatively shallow...except for a warm Eddy over the north-centralGulf. Regardless...Ivan is forecast to be a major hurricane at U.S. Landfall.
