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The Duck of Death
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2,247 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
Looks like it will get in the Upper Gulf. as a cat 1.
The Good news is
1) It probaly wont hit us.
2) It will help churn up the gulf alittle bit - I hope-
 

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Back in da Saddle
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10,140 Posts
All indicators with the High pressure and their clockwise spin put it right on us mid next week.....

Although they are not saying it yet!


John
 

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237 Posts
Hopefully it won't develop much. Last hurricane season, my wife and I were on pins and needles as my daughter was in grad. school in Ft. Lauderdale. Well, she is still there and NOW my son has just started a job with Oceaneering and arrived for his first assignment Mon. morning on a rig in the Gulf out of Intercoastal City. He is in the NDT group, so I guess if it does come into the Gulf, there'll be plenty of work for him. I just hope that it drops farther south and breaks up over Hispanola.
 

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I'm kind of with John on this one. I don't know anything about weather but for some reason I think I will be keeping a pretty close eye on this one.
 

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Boatright custom flats
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3,829 Posts
Heads up. Start thinking about your plans if it continues to head our way!

 

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Administrator
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I am more worried for Aunt Joyce than anyone else right now. Florida has been dry and can use the rain. She got a new roof put on, and I pm'd her yesterday to have the boys start and run the generator for an hour to make sure it was working well. Hopefully, it will veer south a bit and hit the mountains in Hispanola and that will be that.
 

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The Duck of Death
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2,247 Posts
Discussion Starter #8
That H over the S.E is "supposed" to move off by fri-sat. I'm saying AL- FLA state line

Dave
 

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The Duck of Death
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Discussion Starter #10
Latest was that it is weaking . Shear taking tops off T-storms

Dave
 

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Senior Member
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5,853 Posts
Here is the discussion from the weather service today

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATES DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SE TX THIS
MORNING WITH PWS BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER
AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWS
REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA. WILL MENTION JUST ISOLATED -TSRA FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND KEEP POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. WILL
SEE DAY-TO-DAY INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AFTER TODAY AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS UP TO
1.7-1.9 INCHES FRIDAY AND 1.8-2.0 INCHES SATURDAY WITH K-INDICES
RISING TO AROUND 30 EACH DAY. WILL KEEP WITH GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE CATEGORY SOUTHERN HALF
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WILL
REACH SE TX ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS OF
2.0-2.1 INCHES...K-INDICES IN THE LOW 30S AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY
IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD
END UP WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE ENHANCED
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS AT
JUST 40 PCT FOR NOW. AFTER MONDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS. THE STORM HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW DOWN TO
WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (40 KNOTS) NEAR PUERTO RICO. TPC FORECAST
HAS THE STORM LOCATED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY TUESDAY AS A
WEAK TROPICAL STORM. LATEST HPC FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM OR
REMNANTS OF IT INTO DEEP SOUTH TX ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS.
FOLLOWING THE HPC FORECAST AND GIVEN THAT IT IS
A SMALL SYSTEM MEANS GOING WITH A CLIMO FORECAST FOR SE TX FOR NOW.
 

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Wherever you are....BLOOM!
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5,760 Posts
Some of the weather discussions are saying that chances are good, if conditions remain as they are, Chris will dissipate...could sure use some rain in Karnes County.
 
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